The biggest emergency oil reserve release in history was not enough to cool energy markets Thursday as Iran intensified strikes on Gulf shipping and infrastructure, keeping Brent crude near $100 a barrel. The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from member nation reserves — a move that was rapidly eclipsed by fresh violence and disruption. The episode highlighted the limits of policy tools when geopolitical forces dominate markets.
Iran targeted merchant vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree struck and three crew members reportedly trapped. Oman pulled vessels out of its Mina Al Fahal crude export terminal after drone attacks on a neighboring port. Iraq suspended all oil export operations following attacks on tankers near its ports.
Brent crude rose as high as $100.29 a barrel Thursday, a 9% gain, before settling around $98. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Both benchmarks have risen sharply from around $60 a barrel at the start of the year, with Brent hitting a peak of $119 earlier in the week before conflicting remarks from President Trump caused a brief retreat.
The United States announced a release of 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to complement the IEA’s broader action. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the operation would begin within a week and take approximately four months to complete. Iran’s military responded by warning that oil could reach $200 a barrel, arguing that the US had created the very instability it now sought to manage.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent price forecast to $71 from $66 per barrel. Deutsche Bank market strategist Jim Reid warned of a potential stagflationary shock as investors price in a prolonged conflict. Asian stock markets weakened, with Japan’s Nikkei shedding 1.6% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.2%.
