In a move that could potentially strain US-China relations, Donald Trump announced his intention to speak with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te. When questioned at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland before his departure on Air Force One, Trump stated, “I’ll speak to him,” referring to Lai. He further noted, “I speak to everybody … We’ll work on that, the Taiwan problem.” This statement comes amidst a backdrop of strained diplomatic ties since the US officially recognized Beijing over Taipei in 1979. The last direct conversation between a US and Taiwanese president occurred in 2016 when Trump, then president-elect, broke with longstanding protocol by speaking directly with Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen, prompting a formal complaint from China.

Beijing, which has not ruled out using force to assert control over Taiwan, remains sensitive to US-Taiwan interactions, especially given the robust US military support for the island. Despite this, Trump has mentioned twice within a week his plan to communicate with Lai, dispelling thoughts that his initial remarks might have been a mistake. As of now, no specific date has been set for the call, and both the White House and China’s embassy in Washington have not provided immediate comments on the situation. Trump’s administration has a track record of approving more arms sales to Taiwan than any prior US government, although Trump has described these sales as strategic bargaining tools.

Trump’s rapport with China’s President Xi Jinping has been described as “amazing,” yet questions linger about US support for Taiwan. Following a recent visit to Beijing, Trump has not confirmed whether he will proceed with a substantial $14 billion arms deal with Taiwan. This ambiguity has reportedly led Beijing to delay approval for a possible visit by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy, until a definitive decision is made regarding the arms sale.

Any direct communication between Trump and Lai is likely to provoke China’s ire, as Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory. However, Trump’s use of the term “Taiwan problem,” similar to Beijing’s language, has sent mixed messages to Taipei. While President Lai expressed enthusiasm for a dialogue with Trump, he emphasized that Taiwan is committed to maintaining peace and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Lai asserted that it is China, with its significant military presence in the Indo-Pacific, that undermines regional stability. He reiterated that Taiwan’s pursuit of democracy and freedom should not be perceived as a provocation.

The strategic significance of Taiwan to the US is underscored by its status as the fourth-largest trading partner, particularly in the export of advanced semiconductors, vital to the global economy. Under US law, Washington is obligated to equip Taiwan with defensive capabilities, a stance supported by both Republican and Democratic lawmakers who urge continued weapons sales. This ongoing support highlights Taiwan’s critical role in US geopolitical and economic interests.